The 6 Most Vulnerable Democrat-held NC House Districts in 2018
We’ve been closely following the 22 most flippable NC House and 12 most flippable NC Senate districts. We need to flip 4 of the 120 NC House districts or 6 of the 50 NC Senate districts to break the supermajority in the NCGA. But that’s only if we hold onto all of the current Democrat-held seats.
Due to partisan gerrymandering, none of the current NC Senate districts held by Democrats are particularly vulnerable, but several NC House districts are certainly in play. As the results roll in on election night, here are the Democrat-held NC House districts we’ll be watching.
Note: The Dem margin below reflects Governor Cooper’s performance in the district (as currently drawn) relative to Republican incumbent Pat McCrory’s in 2016.
The most Vulnerable Democrat-held Seats
1. NC-H7 Bobbie Richardson, D-12
2. NC-H12 George Graham, D-7
3. NC-H66 Ken Goodman, D-13
These districts were all re-drawn since 2016 to be much more GOP-friendly. They all feature strong Dem incumbents who are fighting to hold their seats. Bobbie Richardson in NC-H7 appears to be running very well in early voting relative to 2016, while there is little obvious change in the composition of the electorate in NC-H12 and NC-H66. George Graham and Ken Goodman have run unopposed for years, so it is difficult to gauge their chances of holding their seats against Republican challengers.
Safer DEM-HELD SEATS
4. NC-H40: Joe John, D+3
5. NC-H47: Charles Graham, D+1
6. NC-H116: Brian Turner, D-2
While there are certainly no guarantees, these Democrat-held swing districts look to be fairly safe. Each features a strong Democratic incumbent, and the Dem margin in early voting is up about 6-7 points relative to 2016.
For more on these races as the results come in, follow our Election Night Live Blog!