Which NC House districts are "flippable"?
The North Carolina General Assembly has 120 state House districts and 50 state Senate districts. Due to extreme gerrymandering, Republicans hold supermajorities in both chambers (74 to 46 in the NC House and 35 to 15 in the NC Senate), meaning they can pass any extreme legislation they choose and simply override the governor's veto. Our best opportunity to break the supermajority and restore the veto is to focus on the NC House. Only three of the 74 Republican-held House districts need to flip for Democrats to break the supermajority.
Based on the current maps, the NC House has fourteen districts that are potentially flippable. These districts are located in five general areas: Wake County, Mecklenburg County, Guilford County, Eastern North Carolina, and Western North Carolina.
Two of the best opportunities to flip a district are in Wake County: NC House 36 and NC House 35.
- In NC H36, currently held by Nelson Dollar (R), Democrats received between 50% and 54% of the vote for NC Senate, Governor, US House, and President.
- In NC H35, currently held by Chris Malone (R), Democrats received at least 50% of the vote for both NC Senate and Governor.
A third Republican-held district, NC House 37, is a longer shot but potentially flippable for the right candidate.
The best opportunity to flip a district in Mecklenburg County (based on the current maps) is NC House 104.
- In NC H104, both Roy Cooper and Hillary Clinton received more than half the vote (52% and 51%, respectively).
3 other districts in Mecklenburg County have potential for the right candidate: NC House 105, NC House 103, and NC House 98. In each of these districts, Roy Cooper received 49-51% of the vote, demonstrating clear potential for strong Democratic candidates in these districts.
Western North Carolina
In Western NC, the best opportunity to flip a district is NC House 119, which Republican Mike Clampitt won by fewer than 300 votes.
Other potential targets - assuming there is a strong candidate - are NC House 93 and NC House 118.
The best opportunity to flip a district in Guilford County is NC House 62, in which Roy Cooper received 50% of the vote.
Eastern North Carolina
The best opportunity in Eastern NC - and perhaps the state- is NC House 8. Republican Susan Martin won by fewer than 200 votes in 2016, and the candidates for NC Senate and Governor received 51% and 50% of the vote, respectively, in the district.
Other potential targets for strong candidates are NC House 9 and NC House 6.